Crude Oil Forecast: JMMC, Lockdowns, Vaccine News in Focus

Since I angered some Chads on /r/investing here's why I think China is the next "big short".

Fellow idiots,
I posted this comment which seems to have angered the highly sophisticated /investing community. I don't mind being downvoted but at least provide some counter arguments if you're going to be a dick. So in the pursuit of truth and tendies for all, I have prepared some juicy due diligence (DD) for WSB Capital on why China is on the verge of collapse.
TL;DR at the bottom.
Point 1: Defaults in China have been accelerating aggressively, and through July 2019, 274 real estate developers filed for bankruptcy, up 50% over last year. A bonus? Many Chinese state controlled banks have been filing for bankruptcy as well. Just google "china bank defaults" or something similar. Notice how many articles there are from 2019? When the banking system fails, everything else usually fails too.
Point 2: The RMB has depreciated significantly. Last time this happened, in 2015-2016, there was a significant outflow of foreign invested capital. According to the IIF, outflows reached $725bn due to the currency depreciation.. This time is different why again? I have heard some arguments why there will be less outflow this time, but I struggle to buy them.
Point 3: Despite wanting to operate like a developed economy, China still has not been able to shrug off the middle income trap. Their GDP per capita is comparable to countries we normally associated with being developing/emerging markets. Tangentially related to point 10.
Point 4: China is an export-dependent economy, with about 20% of their exports contributing towards their GDP. Less exporting means less GDP, less consumption (because businesses make less money, they pay people less, who in turn spend less), which has a greater effect on GDP than any declines in exports would have at face value. Guess what? Chinese exports dropped 1% in August, and August imports dropped -1%, marking the 5th month this year of negative m/m export growth..
Point 5: Business confidence has been weak in China - declining at a sustained pace worse than in 2015. When businesses feel worse, they spend less, invest less in fixed assets, hire less until they feel better about the future. Which takes me to my next point.
Point 6: Fixed asset investment in China has declined 30 percentage points since 2010. While rates are low, confidence is also low, and they are sitting on a record amount of leverage, which means they simply will not be able to afford additional investment.
Point 7: They are an extremely levered economy with a total debt to GDP ratio of over 300%, per the IIF, which also accounts for roughly 15% of global total fucking debt. Here's an interview with someone else talking about it too.
Point 8: Their central bank recently introduced a metric fuckton of stimulus into their economy. This will encourage more borrowing....add fuel to the fire. Moreover, the stimulus will mechanically likely weaken the RMB even more, which could lead to even more foreign outflows, which are already happening, see next point.
Point 9: Fucking LOTS of outflows this year. As of MAY, according to this joint statement, around 40% of US companies are relocating some portion of their supply chains away from mainland. This was in May. Since May, we have seen even more tariffs imposed, why WOULD companies want to stay when exporting to the US is a lot more expensive now?
Point 10: Ignoring ALL of the points above, we are in a global synchronized slowdown, with many emerging market central banks cutting rates - by the most in a decade. Investors want safety, and safe-haven denominated assets are where we have seen a lot of flocking into recently. Things that can be considered safe-havens have good liquidity, a relatively stable economy, and a predictable political environment.
Would love to hear opposing thoughts if you think China is a good buy. I am not against China, nor any other country for that matter, but I am against losing money (yes, wrong sub etc.), and I can not rationalize why anyone would be putting in a bid.
TL;DR: the bubble is right in front of your face, impending doom ahead, short everything, fuck /investing.
Edit, since you 'tards keep asking me how to trade this, there are a few trades that come to mind:
*not investment advice*
submitted by ComicalEconomical to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Where do you get your news feed

Not specific to forex but how do you get your dose of economic/Finance news? I don’t imagine you’d google CNN in the morning and scroll through endless pages of articles, there has to be a centralized way to access it no? I’m looking for a way to get finance related news in on area, maybe either as an app on my PC that gives pop up notifications or a website that colllects and sorts news from a bunch of different outlets. Something like RSS feed but a bit more modern and with better GUI :)
submitted by fittyfive9 to Forex [link] [comments]

XMas rally?

What are your expectations when it comes to short term and long term price development, do you see a XMas rally incoming?
Think the chances are quite good and the reason would be hunt for liquidity by the big boys. Let me explain a bit:
I personally think that big money has taken over and it is no longer about technology when it comes to BTC. Since the introduction of BTC futures things have changed and it is now just a casino. Trading index and commodity futures and price movements there are optimized to "use" retail traders for liquidity so i would expect the same is now the case for BTC.
Since BTC trading is far less regulated and some players can even move the markets by themselves or Tether, betting on futures could be used as amplifier. Just a few days ago the sudden spike wiped out 60M in short positions on the futures for example. That is nice pocket money for a whale. Now as discussed it is all about the liquidity in trading, since paper gains on any assets only become real once they are actually realized.
We have seen a dramatic raise to ATH. After that a drop to levels, where it would be barely profitable to keep infrastructure running. After that a raise over 10k, which created another wave of inflow of liquidity due to FOMO. This was a great opportunity to cash out for the big boys, they love to sell into all the FOMO buying of small investors (not just BTC). Now how will it continue ? What would be the next opportunity to generate liquidity to cash out?
We have dropped significantly from the last spike already. But XMas is at the doorstep and that could also attract some precious liquidity, especially if price would raise again over important levels like 10k and BTC would therefore be in the mainstream news....

If you are looking for more background info about liquidity and big money this is a really good video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5UpXhYXnAM
You could also read about the IG client sentiment indicator and price development (on USD/AUD f.e. it is nicely visible)...
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/ssi/2019/10/22/AUDUSD-201910221423.html
My advice would be to make sure you are green, when all the dust settles. Diversify your investments and remember to play like the big boys: only realized profits are "real". Buy low sell high, do not HODL everything, because in this game someone will hold the bag in the end and it is usually the small investor. Times have changed, it is no longer about technology.
submitted by Biotic101 to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures
Australian Dollar Could Struggle With RBA Rate Call, GDP Figures

  • The Reserve Bank of Australia is thought unlikely to cut rates, but is likely to sound dovish
  • Australian growth figures may well disappoint given business investment weakness
  • Bullish trade headlines might negate both and boost the Aussie, but they’re unpredictable
Find out what retail foreign exchange traders make of the Australian Dollar’s prospects right now, in real time, at the DailyFX Sentiment Page
In the coming week Australian Dollar markets might just be able to look past the US-China trade story, at least for a while, as they contemplate a packed period of local economic news. Whether this will be good news for the currency’s bulls, however, is a very open question.
Out on front of course will be Tuesday’s monetary policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Market positioning is at present quite emphatic that no move is coming, and the Official Cash Rate will remain at its record, 0.75% low once the central bank’s deliberations are over. However, the RBA itself conceded in the minutes of its last meeting that the case for an interest rate cut could be made then, an admission which knocked the Aussie earlier this month. Given that little has clearly changed for the better since, the chance of a cut on Tuesday must still be ‘live’ even given those market doubts.
submitted by dailymarketsignals to u/dailymarketsignals [link] [comments]

AUDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Record Low China GDP

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J Updates to China’s GDP report may undermine the recent rebound in AUDUSD as the growth rate is anticipated to hit a record low in the first quarter of 2019.
* More Details Here
submitted by Gdog1243 to aboutForex [link] [comments]

AUDUSD Rate Rebound Vulnerable to Record Low China GDP

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J Updates to China’s GDP report may undermine the recent rebound in AUDUSD as the growth rate is anticipated to hit a record low in the first quarter of 2019.
* More Details Here
submitted by Gdog1243 to aboutForex [link] [comments]

1broker copy guide - avoiding extreme losses

First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money.
https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking.
Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade.
Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky.
Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes.
1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades.
Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars.
And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success.
Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts)
Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again.
When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading.
1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this.
So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading.
Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.

My opinion on several traders

vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days)
gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change.
vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain.
Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away.
noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades.
Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now.
1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling.
knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record.
HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80%
boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record.
sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much.
Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you.
eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary.
3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range.
SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%.
SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while.
CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading.
kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment.
google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades
KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago.
SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more.
APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%.
dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains.
Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
  1. Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
  2. Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive.
Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
submitted by FCatarina to 1Broker [link] [comments]

Basic Question: how to calculate Implied Rate?

Hi guys,
I am looking to improve my understanding on bonds, in particular - gilts.
Several questions if I may, based on investing.com website data:
  1. Why is 1M, 3M, 6M is not updated live? - is that because there are no bonds maturing or are they just not traded..? Seems to be only at 7am...
  2. This image from yesterday's news article shows (same as above?) figure of implied rate and has (a calculated?) implied BP. I understand that Implied BP is effectively 0.716% out of 0.75% possible and thus 84% probability of a 0.25% hike, but how exactly is 0.6706 is converted to be 0.716%?
  3. From 1M bonds here, how can I calculate that Implied BP rate..? The bond matures on 20 Aug, so I assume it has X days on 0.5% rate (until BoE decision) plus Y days on 0.716% rate (discounted from 0.75 as not completely certain). I've tried to reverse-calculate, but just cannot figure it out. Any ideas how to do it?
Thanks and sorry for basic questions, trying to get my head round these!
submitted by igurdon to investing [link] [comments]

NZDUSD Rate Forecast: July High on Radar Ahead of New Zealand CPI

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J NZDUSD appears to be on track to test the monthly-high (0.6727) ahead of the updates to New Zealand’s CPI as the exchange rate carves a series of higher highs and lows.
* More Details Here
submitted by Gdog1243 to aboutForex [link] [comments]

What websites do you guys use for real time LIVE forex news?

Hey guys, just wonderig what kinda resources do you guys use for your live forex news? This isn't economic calendar stuff, but rather real time live events that aren't related to set dates. I found https://www.dailyfx.com/real-time-news but the news reported isn't upto speed and there is usually a long delay before it is relayed. Any other alternatives? Bloomberg news is alright as well but its more stock related rather than FX. Some widgets or addons to chrome would be awesome
Thanks!
free and paid suggestions are fine!
submitted by KinG_TheJ to Forex [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/canada/: The full timeline of Canada and Saudi Arabia's escalating feud over jailed human rights activists

I was banned from /canada/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from businessinsider.com, its title was:
Timeline of Canada, Saudi Arabia diplomatic feud over human rights
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

How can this be?

So I just saw someone else post something titled "Crush my dreams". Which I think is a great idea. I for one don't want to waste my time learning something that I can't ever be good at. I'm reading along and everyone is giving it to em. It seems the general consensus is "25% per year would be something only really good traders could achieve." Basically giving a very grim outlook to currency exchange. Especially something that is touted as something you can bring little money to and with hard work make a living out of. 25% on an initial $2000 investment is just $500. Which is definitely a lot more than someone would get putting their money in the bank but not really what you'd call making a living.
I recently found this subreddit and really enjoy it. I've learned a lot from the 2-3 weeks I've been stalking it. I heard about Forex back in December from my mother in law. She was talk about it from a co worker. Since December I've been trying to immerse myself in this concept of forex. Scouring tutorials, books, videos, etc. I learn something new every day and I feel like I gain a new piece to the puzzle all the time, Still not quite ready to dump my own real money into it yet but I feel close.
So the mother in laws coworker, who informed us about forex started back in August of 2014. That's when she invested real money. She trades mostly from her cell phone. No technical analysis from what I can tell. She's a very nice lady. Wants to help people so she offered to teach me what she knows. I cooked her up a dish as thanks and headed over. She told me how she found out about forex. She told me how she spent like $250 on a class that she felt ripped off because she lost part of her initial investment because the "teacher" didn't tell her about actually closing her trades.
This is going to be a brief and outlined description of what she "taught" me the day I went to her place. Keep in mind I've been studying on my own for almost 6 months.
-Candle wick is on the bottom? It's going to go up so buy. -Candle wick is on the top? It's going to go down so sell. -Trade USD/CAD -Trade from 8AM EST - 12PM EST -Don't trade from 12-1 (Lunch ish on the stock market?) -Don't trade on bank holidays -Don't trade if you're not going to watch it (she's basically scalping and I don't think she knows much about stop limits? idk) -Go to dailyfx.com and read the news. -Go to yahoo news and read the financial section. (Edit: This is an oversimplified explanation of what she taught. These were the main points)
That was essentially it. Which don't get me wrong, there's some good info in there, but not exactly the education I expected to get from a successful trader. I asked her a couple questions and had used the terms support and resistance and she was like "I don't know much about the terminology but that's why I think you will do better than me because you're smarter than me."
From what I can tell she just has some sort of instinct and can read the market really freaking well.
So to really raise some eyebrows: Her initial investment in August was around $500. She lost about half on some bad initial trades. She has, since then, grown her account to over $23,000. I shit you not. I saw her trading station with my own eyes. I asked her just to confirm that she had not added any extra money since her initial $500 and she said no. Which is something like a 10,000-11,000% return on investment right? Like 1000% increase per month on average.
She seems like a very genuine lady. She didn't charge me anything. She checks up on me regularly to see my progress. She says she just wants to help me and my wife get on our feet. She's very nice. I tried trading on the 1m and 5m charts and just found that the spreads were eating up my gains on the demo account. Not enough winning trades with enough pip change.
What are you guys thoughts? I know this is probably going to seem made up, but had I not looked at her account with my own eyes I'd be calling bullshit, which was the main reason I wanted to go over to her place and have her teach me. Just to see her account and see if she was full of it... But it was in fact a real account. It was ready to be withdrawn if she wanted to.
submitted by Wannabeforextrader to Forex [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/canada/: Saudi Arabia reassures Canada on oil, Trudeau comments 'positive'

I was banned from /canada/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

Trading without STOPS

Does anyone use a tactic without a Stop? I’ve been playing around with forex for only a few weeks now – just a demo account – I’m trying to read everything I can get my hands on. Everything I read about removing STOPS is greatly discouraged (I understand why) but every time I use one I seem to lose.
Here is my noob thought process: Chasing the market minute to minute feels like gambling but when I look at it by the day or even month I get a sense of direction. I’ve been trading primarily EUJPY – always selling (usually 3 PIP limit) with no STOP. Again, just Demo – no real money. This image shows the pricing since November. Obviously it will bottom out and probably trend back up (I’ll probably wish for a STOP when that happens). I visit https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar daily and don’t trade during new releases and then resume trading once I get the full scope of the news.
I’ve read and tried many different tactics but so far this has been working the best for me but I’m afraid because I feel like I’m going so against the norm without using STOPS I’ll get burnt once I start using real money.
submitted by IMBarBarryN to Forex [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/nottheonion/: Saudi Arabia Rejects Human Rights Criticism, Then Crucifies Someone

I was banned from /nottheonion/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

GBP/USD Technical & Sentiment Analysis (16 Feb 2014)

Hey guys. I don't usually do GBP/USD, but it's suddenly become one of the most interesting pairs in my opinion, because I believe some very big moves are afoot. I'm going to mostly be looking at the long term view in the context of market positioning, so this might not be all that helpful for scalpers ;)
I want to start with the Daily FX SSI (Speculative Sentiment Index) reading for GBP/USD, which is quite something: http://i.imgur.com/pFcbIij.png (© 2014 DailyFX)
There are 9 traders short for every one long. Basically the entire retail crowd is betting against the trend. This means that the majority of orders in the market will be stop losses near current levels.
Also worth a watch is John Kicklighter's video for the week, focusing on the S&P and GBP/USD: http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2014/02/14/Forex_Weighing_Reversals_for_SP_500_USDollar_GBPUSD.html
For those new to this kind of thing, sentiment analysis is just analysis using what you can know about market positioning, and how the market generally "feels" about a currency pair. Usually SSI gives quite reliable indications of when a trend will continue, because the majority of retail traders will start betting against it. Their stops add fuel to the fire when it continues. (This is also why I'm short AUD/USD - 2 traders long to every 1 short. Not extreme yet, but it means there are lots of stops below).
Before I get into too much detail there, here's the weekly chart: http://i.imgur.com/Ef4VRQf.png
(Yes I'm long)
I've put some tentative levels there, but I'll do more precise ones in a minute. As you can see, price is breaking out of a long term wedge. It hasn't quite cleared the range yet, and 1.700 is a massive wall to get over. There will be enormous interest at this level, not to mention some extremely large option barriers.
But I think it will break it eventually. Why I think it will go higher? Well, market positioning for one, but also this:
http://www.cityindex.co.uk/market-analysis/market-news/24551832014/sterling-at-fresh-3-year-highs-eyes-more-gains/?cid=0000215115
Good analysis piece pointing out that GBP/USD is only about 6% away from the 200WMA. Deviations from this average have historically been much larger. Since price is clearly moving away from this level, I believe we can expect quite a large move as the market unwinds its short positioning.
A look at Oanda's orderbook (or the order boards posted at ForexLive) can give us a more precise view of where these orders are sitting:
http://i.imgur.com/FEn4h3O.png
Current Positioning & Open Orders
As you can see the market is severely short, mostly from the last 100 pips or so. 1.6600 is an area where a lot of positions, both long and short, were established.
There are clusters of buy stops above 1.6700 (small), 1.6750 (bigger) and then above 1.6900 there are two large clusters of buy stops.
Further, there are more buy stops above current price than there are sell orders, meaning that there is ample room for price to continue higher. They're mixed in with some mid-weight sell orders around 1.6800, so this is a level that should provide resistance.
Going a bit lower, we find that bids (both those wanting to initiate new positions and those wanting to take profits on short positions) should provide extreme levels of support.
These are in at about every 10-15 pips between 1.6600 and 1.6500, with the largest cluster being at 1.6500. Going on this alone, buying any dips below 1.66 looks really good.
Beware the retracement
Bear in mind that there are sell stops below 1.6700 - these are the weaker longs or those wishing to enter short on a break below the figure. These could accelerate a correction down to 1.6650 quite quickly.
Here's the 4hr chart, with the largest bids and offers put in. You'll notice that they line up quite nicely with just about any other method of calculating S&R. Dashed lines are larger orders, dotted ones smaller. The big box is where there are too many orders to make lines for :P
http://i.imgur.com/C1htngr.png
Hopefully that's helpful.
Now, there's also a fundamental component to consider. The UK's recovery is looking fairly solid, while the market is very quickly losing its patience with the greenback. Over the last quarter my bullish USD bias has evaporated, as it was predicated on the market not having priced in the full effects of the taper. Now that it appears this is not the case, I have no choice but to change my USD bias to neutral/bearish. The recent soft data also indicates that the recovery is lagging that of the UK's quite badly. The market's reaction to positive US data is generally muted, and when something can't rally on good news, it's usually bad news.
Another thing to note is that the DJ FXCM Dollar Index declined throughout the last dip and recovery in the S&P - one of the longest sustained bearish moves in history. It was only half the magnitude of the other declines of this length, but most other 6-7 day consecutive declines in the dollar have preceded much greater bear waves, not recoveries. The logical thing to do is to look for a USD bounce and sell it.
We need look no further than the S&P to see what's happening here:
http://i.imgur.com/YrCT8tA.png (4hr chart with GBP/USD overlaid in white)
Sterling not quite a safe-haven yet. If 1850 goes in S&P, expect GBP/USD to continue higher. However, Daily RSI on both is currently showing bearish divergence (shown on charts - it's a daily RSI despite it being a 4hr chart)
This means that we might head slightly lower before bouncing. Trend line support for the S&P comes in at around 1775, which would imply quite a serious fall in Cable before buyers really step in.
The level I really like? 1.6475 There is a large cluster of buy orders just below 1.6500, which I believe is where the smart money is looking to enter. This move would flush out a lot of weak longs, leaving plenty of space for new positions. Sellers will also be taking a lot of profits off here, giving us a very good chance of a bounce. From there all it will take is a move back above 1.660 to really get moving.
So longer term I would look to start long positions between 1.6600 and 1.6475, with stops below 1.6250 or the 100DMA
Targets would be completely open. I will look to exit the position if and when speculative sentiment drops back to more natural levels, or perhaps even reverses. Stops will be trailed to lock in profit, but not aggressively.
submitted by NormanConquest to Forex [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/politics/: With Delaware soybeans farmers in the crosshairs of a trade war, their support for Trump is tested, persists

I was banned from /politics/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from delawareonline.com, its title was:
Delaware soybeans farmers' support for Trump is tested, persists
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/politics/: Can the GOP Survive a Trade War?

I was banned from /politics/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from bloomberg.com, its title was:
Terms of Service Violation
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/worldnews/: Fallout from the Turkish lira's meltdown is starting to spread to markets around the world

I was banned from /worldnews/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
When I first saw this article from businessinsider.com, its title was:
Turkish lira dropping and markets around the world are reeling
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

[Banned] /r/canada/: Pakistan backs Saudi Arabia in Canada row

I was banned from /canada/. Here's what I would have said in response to this post:
Here are some other articles about this story:
I am a bot trying to encourage a balanced news diet.
These are all of the articles I think are about this story. I do not select or sort articles based on any opinions or perceived biases, and neither I nor my creator advocate for or against any of these sources or articles. It is your responsibility to determine what is factually correct.
submitted by alternate-source-bot to alt_source_bot_log [link] [comments]

$GIMO Chart DD and stuff

Ticker: $GIMO
Exchange: NYSE
Industry: Software
Overview: $GIMO offers solutions that deliver visibility and control of traffic accross networks. It has a presence in the United States; Rest of Americas; Europe; Middle East and Africa, and Asia Pacific. (Source: Reuters)
In January, $GIMO reported prelimiary Q4 results that caused a crash of almost 20%. Of course institutional downgrades soon followed. Now, the company is operating at it's "new" value, and looks to be at a fair price. This post will outline when to buy, and when to sell in an effort to make a short-term gain. Personally, I like playing options to get the most bang for my buck.
That being said, I believe $GIMO will continue it's uptrend through to the middle of next week before it either peaks, or rallies, and here's why...
Ichimoku Cloud:
Figure A
If you'd like to read up on Ichimoku clouds, check out this article. Otherwise, the TL;DR is that when the pink, green, and light-blue lines cross in to the purple cloud, there's a good chance there will be a rally of some sort.
Aside from that, you want to notice the green line and how it is starting to trend upwards. This alone is not enough to say whether or not you should expect it to continue, but it's a good starting indicator...
MACD:
Figure B
You can learn about the MACD over here.
What you want to notice, is that the green line is starting to turn around, and the blue is about to as well. This would be a nice 'sweet spot'. Scroll down in the article to Figure 4 and look at the 2nd circled 'Buy' spot. Looks familiar, eh? TL;DR looks like it's trending up.
Stochasitcs:
Figure C
This is the Stoachastic Momentum Index (SMI). We are using it as an indicator to tell us whether or not the 'run' is over ($GIMO has been green 2 days in a row now). Since the two lines look like they just turned around and are still near the bottom, it leads us to believe that there is still room to run. I personally think it'll be bullish through next week.
More info on using this indicator can be found here
Figure D
This figure shows the Stochastics-Fast chart. Similar to the Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI), this is to help identify whether or not the stock is overbought or oversold. More information can be found here.
This chart is the LEAST desirable out of all the charts posted so far. Right now it says its approaching the overbought territory, so tread carefully!
Conclusion: I believe $GIMO will dip or stay relatively flat tomorrow (Friday Mar 10th), this will give a little more leeway on the overbought territory which allows for a little more of a run throughout next week. So my play would be to wait for a dip tomorrow, buy, then hold through to Weds or Thurs next week for a small run. After a few smaller green days Mon-Weds, I think it will dip a bit, until the MACD levels out. Not necessarily to 'oversold' territory, but enough to run back up again and a little higher than the previous peak (seen in first chart around mid Feb).
Well, I guess that's all. Let me know what you guys think, and if I'm an idiot that's gonna lose every last penny or not. Or if I'm doing everything wrong, etc... Otherwise, good luck and godspeed.
submitted by alexslacks to wallstreetbets [link] [comments]

Was the JPY interest rate change announcement scheduled at all?

I absolutely drooled over the action on the usd/jpy charts around the interest rate change announcement. However, I cannot find it on this calendar of scheduled forex announcements of the last week. Did the BOJ just release the news unexpectedly?
If so, can anyone recommend a good swawker?
submitted by Desecurls to Forex [link] [comments]

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